Before you scoff at Democratic prospects in this red state, consider a few things:
- Idaho has had a huge increase in population in the last few years, mostly to the urban (as urban as Idaho gets) area in and around Boise. Urban voters tend to go blue.
- Idaho's overall population is still quite small - put up a few billboards in Boise and you'll get half of the state and 3/4 of the district driving by them every day. A little money reaches a large percentage of the voters in the district.
- Approval of the Bush Administration has recently slipped 16% in the state - a new development, and a promising one for Democrats like me who smell blood in the water.
- Straight from Larry Grant, as reported in the excellent article anyone interested in Idaho politics absolutely must read from the Boise Weekly:
...To the best estimate, he says, the Idaho's First Congressional District has about 230,000 voters. It would take, he speculates, about 115,000 of those votes to win. In 2004, John Kerry got about 96,000 votes from the district. Go down to the legislative-level races, he said, and 118,000 people cast votes for Democrats.
"Add some independents and disaffected Republicans," Grant says as he digs through his apple pie, "and it not only shows that a Democrat can win Congress but also in the State Legislature."
- The guy bought me a beer and sat down to talk about what I wanted out of a Congressman. That's some good politics.
- The seat Grant is competing for is open this term, so there is no incumbent to compete against.